En que piensan las pistolas...

Estuve en una llamada/evento y les paso mis notas:


Current concern: Inflation... not necessarily our view (short term)
- China / US trade imbalance
       - Leverage will have to go down... extended slow down
- US needs to grow at 2.5% for job creation, probably will be lower
- China will settle at around 9% growth
Start of reversal of the big "levering" that began during Reagan years ("slow and prolonged delevering in developed world)


Markets
- Peso stable at around 12.50
- Commodities (ex. gold) real, and pre-emptive demand exist. Speculative demand is gone. Probably little to no downside on commodities / except if double dip. If China continues to grow, commodities will at least maintain current prices (Industrial commodities - copper, nickel, iron ore, aluminum)
- Gold could be a bubble
     - Central banks are starting to sell


Preferred Sectors:
+ Financials are the cheapest sector (Citi, BAC). If patient, great investments. However, in order to go up financials need a Catalyst. (Clarity on Basel III, republicans win elections, friendlier tone from Obama, good operating results)
+ Technology.... ride the waves: cloud computing (cirtrix), corporate infrastructure (Cisco, Oracle, computers), consumer trends (Apple, Nvidia...). Cramer has it right...
+ Commodities... Invest in companies, not raw materials. Gmexico, Vale...


Saludos!!